Aurora Forecast

Chart
Reports
Options
More...

Alerts
Geo Mag
3 Day
Discussion
27 Day

Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 3532
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 27 1346 UTC

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2025 Sep 27 1330 UTC
Station: GOES19
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1427
Issue Time: 2025 Sep 26 2041 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Sep 26 2005 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 778 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 September follow.
Solar flux 165 and estimated planetary A-index 7.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 27 September was 1.00.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 25 Sep 008
Estimated Ap 26 Sep 007
Predicted Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 008-018-014

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Active                25/35/35
Minor storm           05/20/10
Moderate storm        01/05/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 27 Sep - 29 Sep
             Sep 27    Sep 28    Sep 29
00-03UT        2.33      3.00      3.33
03-06UT        2.00      2.33      3.67
06-09UT        2.00      2.33      3.00
09-12UT        1.67      3.00      3.00
12-15UT        2.00      3.33      2.67
15-18UT        2.00      4.00      2.67
18-21UT        2.00      4.00      2.00
21-00UT        3.00      3.67      2.00

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 27-Sep 29 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 27-Sep 29 2025

             Sep 27       Sep 28       Sep 29
00-03UT       1.67         3.00         3.33
03-06UT       2.00         2.33         3.67
06-09UT       1.33         2.33         3.00
09-12UT       1.00         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         3.33         2.67
15-18UT       2.00         4.00         2.67
18-21UT       2.00         4.00         2.00
21-00UT       3.00         3.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2025

              Sep 27  Sep 28  Sep 29
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Sep 26 2025 2001 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 27-Sep 29 2025

              Sep 27        Sep 28        Sep 29
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 27-29 Sep.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. An impulsive M1.6 (R1-Minor)
flare at 26/2001 UTC from a region just beyond the East limb was the
largest of the period. An associated Type II radio sweep (est 778 km/s)
was observed at 26/2005 UTC. Regions 4232 (N03E71, Cao/beta) and 4227
(S17W20, Dro/beta) also produced M-class activity. No Earth-directed
CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for isolated
M-class flare activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 27-29 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
for most of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
levels, with a chance for high levels, on 27-29 Sep as CH HSS influences
wane. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength was at or below 5 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz
were observed. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~450 km/s to
~360 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable after 26/1844 UTC.

.Forecast...
Mostly nominal conditions are expected through the majority of 27 Sep.
Relatively weak enhancements are anticipated by the end of the day,
lasting into 28 Sep, as influence from another negative polarity CH HSS
is anticipated. Enhancements are expected to continue through most of 29
Sep as CH HSS effects persist, but weaken.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected through most of 27 Sep. By the end of
the day, unsettled levels are anticipated as a negative polarity CH HSS
is expected to begin moving into a geoeffective position. An increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected, with a chance for isolated G1
(Minor) conditions, on 28 Sep as the CH moves into place. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected to return by the end of 29 Sep as CH HSS
influence begin to slowly diminish.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2025 Sep 22     180          24          5
2025 Sep 23     180          12          3
2025 Sep 24     185           5          2
2025 Sep 25     185           5          2
2025 Sep 26     175           5          2
2025 Sep 27     175           5          2
2025 Sep 28     170           5          2
2025 Sep 29     170          15          5
2025 Sep 30     170           8          3
2025 Oct 01     160           5          2
2025 Oct 02     150           5          2
2025 Oct 03     140          15          5
2025 Oct 04     140          12          4
2025 Oct 05     140          12          4
2025 Oct 06     140          15          5
2025 Oct 07     140          12          4
2025 Oct 08     135           8          3
2025 Oct 09     140           8          3
2025 Oct 10     140           5          2
2025 Oct 11     135          15          5
2025 Oct 12     135          12          4
2025 Oct 13     140           8          3
2025 Oct 14     140           5          2
2025 Oct 15     150           5          2
2025 Oct 16     160           5          2
2025 Oct 17     160           5          2
2025 Oct 18     160          10          3

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary Secondary Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #3 (Hobart)
User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

v4.16b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release 17th Dec 2020)
Fixed New GOES and HPI inputs from noaa for Json (17/12/20).
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2022 Brendan Davey

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.